Dynamic rupture forewarned by a displacement field criterion

摘要

Ground-surface accelerations warn of incipient natural hazards-but threshold criteria remain indistinct. We use a model of localizing deformation within a encapsulating compliant halo to accurately project time-to-failure and to discriminate between ultimate stable and unstable rupture. A heterogeneous distribution of displacement histories and relative polarities demark composite zones of local failure. These composite zones accommodate strain accumulation in the localizing core and strain-relaxation in the surround. Balanced rates of strain accumulation and complementary shedding project both a time-to-rupture and anticipated energetics-quiescent of dynamic. This analysis is applied to follow the evolution of both local discrete ruptures and their coalescence into macroscale failure-with equal resolution and success. Apparent is a typical deformation response characterized by creep, relaxation and reload at different positions.