Flattening Index of the Solar Corona and the Solar Cycle

摘要

The photometrical flattening index of the solar corona a+b is defined according to Ludendorff. In this paper we have investigated how the flattening index varies with respect to the phase of solar activity and the sunspot number. We have compiled 170 values of the flattening index using the data on 60 total solar eclipses from 1851 to 2010. We have found that the flattening index takes values from 0 to 0. 4, and is anticorrelated with solar activity. The value of the flattening index at the beginning of solar cycle 24 was used as a precursor to forecast the amplitude of the cycle. It was found that the amplitude of solar cycle 24 will be about 95 in terms of the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers.