Advances in Space Weather Ensemble Forecasting

摘要

At many space weather-related meetings I hear that space weather (SW) forecasting is several decades behind terrestrial weather forecasting. Some attribute the lag to the dearth of space environment observations. Occasionally, the relative youth of our science and the corresponding lack of sophistication in forecasting methodologies are mentioned. Ours will always be the "younger science." Nonetheless, our community is making significant progress in the latter category, especially with respect to "ensemble forecasting."