Exploratory GIS modelling for assessing potential conflict in Australia's central desert region

摘要

This paper presents a simple methodology (preliminary and exploratory) to model potential hotspots of land-users' conflict at regional level in preparation of a dispute system design. Australia's central desert region is chosen and modelled in terms of four independent variables - Aboriginal communities, National Parks land, Pastoral lease and Tourism site, and one dependent variable - Strength of Interest. Preparation of the data is detailed in nine steps. Analysis takes place in two forms: overlays and statistical summary. Overlaying two coverages reveals potential conflict by demonstrating which interests have overlapping zones of interest. These zones are divided into areas of Strong, Medium, Weak and No Interest. Three insights from this method of analysis are discussed. Simple statistical summarization describes the conflict potential from the perspective of each respective group of interests and two insights are discussed. An unexpected insight was gained through this process showing potential conflict within groups of interest as well. Through this modelling exercise it is determined that a simple GIS application can produce significant insights in preparing a dispute systems design.