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Some Variations on the Extremal Index

机译:极值指数的一些变化

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摘要

We reconsider Leadbetter’s extremal index for stationary sequences. It has interpretation as reciprocal of the expected size of an extremal cluster above high thresholds. We focus on heavy-tailed time series, in particular, on regularly varying stationary sequences, and discuss recent research in extreme value theory for these models. A regularly varying time series has multivariate regularly varying finite-dimensional distributions. Thanks to results by Basrak and Segers (2009), we have explicit representations of the limiting cluster structure of extremes, leading to explicit expressions of the limiting point process of exceedances and the extremal index as a summary measure of extremal clustering. The extremal index appears in various situations, which do not seem to be directly related, such as the convergence of maxima and point processes. We consider different representations of the extremal index which arise from the considered context. We discuss the theory and apply it to a regularly varying AR(1) process and the solution to an affine stochastic recurrence equation.
机译:我们重新考虑了 Leadbetter 的稳态序列极值指数。它被解释为高于高阈值的极值簇的预期大小的倒数。我们关注的是重尾时间序列,特别是有规律变化的平稳序列,并讨论了这些模型的极值理论的最新研究。规律变化的时间序列具有多变量规律变化的有限维分布。由于Basrak和Segers(2009)的结果,我们明确表示了极端的极限聚类结构,从而明确表达了超标的极限点过程和极值指数作为极值聚类的总结度量。极值指数出现在各种情况下,这些情况似乎没有直接关系,例如最大值和点过程的收敛。我们考虑了从所考虑的上下文中产生的极值指数的不同表示。我们讨论了该理论并将其应用于规则变化的 AR(1) 过程和仿射随机递归方程的解。

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