In the light of the recent events, MBR has revised its out-look for the tin market. From the fourth quarter of 2001, we are forecasting that mine production will tail off as PT Timah, and others, are forced to cut output, and illegal mining in Indonesia begins to be curtailed. Refined production will fall in the third quarter this year due to cutbacks by Minsur and also by Chinese smelters' who are holding off for higher prices. An increase is however expected in the second half of 2002 in line with our forecast price recovery. Demand will be seen to have dropped drastically in the third quarter this year, but with record low prices likely to increase consumer offtake, and with demand still growing in China, consumption will pick up steadily. Accordingly, MBR forecasts an annual price of
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