Treading water, but for how long?

摘要

In last week’s report we slashed our tin price forecasts for the Q4 2015 to Q2 2016 period aswe become increasingly pessimistic about the weight of negative sentiment in the basemetals sphere and its impact on the tin prices, despite robust fundamentals. Over theweek since we made these forecast downgrades, cash tin has managed to dig its heelsin the $14,600-14,800/tonne range, keeping well away from the August low of $13,890/tonne. Does this mean that tin’s latest downward correction is over? We would be verycautious about championing this viewpoint given the number of false dawns we havewitnessed in recent months. However, we would also add that there have been noparticularly negative developments in tin’s fundamentals in the past week either.