Long product analysis

摘要

As we forecast in last month's Emerging Steel Markets Monthly, long product prices have continued to strengthen out of Turkey, on the back of increased costs incurred by domestic steelmakers. Billet prices out of the country are currently averaging 338-343 dollars/tonne fob from EAF steelmakers for standard grade material, approximately 15 dollars/tonne higher than February levels. Demand has shown some signs of strengthening over the course of the last four weeks, but MBR understands that most of the rise is attributable to higher scrap import prices. With reduced scrap shipments from the CIS countries due to extreme weather conditions in the region, Turkish producers have stepped up purchases from Europe and the USA. MBR understands that CIS ports are still largely frozen, which has placed upward pressure on scrap prices out of the Black Sea region. Furthermore, lower scrap collection rates in the region should help sustain these prices in the coming weeks, and further small-scale rises are still likely.