DISPLACE: a dynamic, individual-based model for spatial fishing planning and effort displacement - integrating underlying fish population models

摘要

We previously developed an individual-based model evaluating the bio-economic efficiency of fishing vessel movements from recent high resolution spatial fishery data. The assumption was constant underlying resource availability. Now, an advanced version considers the underlying size-based dynamics of the targeted stocks for Danish and German vessels harvesting the North Sea and Baltic Sea fish stocks. The stochastic fishing process is specific to the vessel catching power and to the encountered population abundances, based on disaggregated research survey data. The impact of the effort displacement on the fish stocks and the vessels' economic consequences were evaluated by simulating individual choices of vessel speed, fishing grounds, and ports. Some scenarios led to increased energy efficiency and profit while others such as fishing closures or fishermen optimization sometimes lowered the revenue by altering the spatiotemporal effort allocation. On an individual scale, the simulations led to gains and losses due to either the interactions between vessels or to the alteration of individual patterns. We demonstrate that integrating the spatial activity of vessels and fish abundance dynamics allow for more realistic predictions of fishermen behaviour, profits, and stock abundance.