Cyclic variations of quality characteristics in river water in an industrial region

摘要

River water in industrial regions is a dynamic medium defined by random variables that cannot be described by linear equations. However, some water quality characteristics, e.g., pollutant concentrations, which look chaotically distributed are largely governed by deterministic laws resulting in periodic variations of water chemistry. Understanding this process will enable the researchers to analyse the history of the characteristics involved and to predict their future values. We provide further evidence of predictable, cyclic concentration behavior from the Iset River flowing through a heavily industrialized area in the Ob River basin, Ural Federal District, Russia. In particular, we found that the concentration of copper and nitrate can be characterized by pronounced fractals and quasi-cycles with predominant lengths of 7-8 and 4-5 months, respectively. Our results can improve forecast reliability and water use efficiency. Results from the Iset River could be potentially applicable to virtually any other river in the world, at least in temperate climate areas.