Performance of BEAMS Risk of Death Score for Mortality Prediction in Australian and New Zealand Burns Patients

摘要

Abstract The BEAMS (Burns Evaluation and Mortality Study) risk of death score was developed in 2013 as a mortality prediction tool for burns patients admitted to an ICU (intensive care unit) in Australia and New Zealand. While it previously performed well, identifying high-risk groups and allowing benchmarking, over time such scores may lose calibration or be superseded by improved scoring systems. Our aim was to assess the performance of the BEAMS score in a modern cohort of burns patient. Data were sourced from the Burns Registry of Australia and New Zealand (BRANZ) and the Australia New Zealand Intensive Care Society Centre for Outcome and Resource Evaluation (ANZICS CORE) databases. Data were linked using probabilistic methodology. BEAMS risk of death scores was calculated for all adult patients. Between 2009 and 2019, there were 2075 patients admitted to an Australian or New Zealand ICU with a burn-related injury. Advanced age, female gender, higher TBSA burns, and inhalation injury were all associated with increased rate of mortality (P < .05). Overall hospital mortality was 9.4 (n = 195). The predicted risk of death from BEAMS was 8.7 and the score had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.934. We found the BEAMS risk of death score continues to have excellent performance in a modern cohort of adult critically ill burns patients. It remains a valid tool for mortality prediction among adult burns patients admitted to ICU across Australia and New Zealand.