Bayesian prediction for business mortality analysis

摘要

This paper is concerned with business mortality analysis in a Bayesian setting. We assume that a businessman startsNbusinesses at different points of time and at a certain epoch referred to as the ‘present’, the failure times of the failed businesses and the survival times of the still surviving businesses are recorded. Bayesian prediction for business mortality or survival up to a future time pointt0is made under the assumptions of a Weibull business survival distribution (WBSD) and the squared error loss function (SELF). The results are extended to the situation where one of the observed times of business failure may possibly be an outl