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Bayes factors for peri-null hypotheses

机译:近零假设的贝叶斯因子

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摘要

Abstract A perennial objection against Bayes factor point-null hypothesis tests is that the point-null hypothesis is known to be false from the outset. We examine the consequences of approximating the sharp point-null hypothesis by a hazy ‘peri-null’ hypothesis instantiated as a narrow prior distribution centered on the point of interest. The peri-null Bayes factor then equals the point-null Bayes factor multiplied by a correction term which is itself a Bayes factor. For moderate sample sizes, the correction term is relatively inconsequential; however, for large sample sizes, the correction term becomes influential and causes the peri-null Bayes factor to be inconsistent and approach a limit that depends on the ratio of prior ordinates evaluated at the maximum likelihood estimate. We characterize the asymptotic behavior of the peri-null Bayes factor and briefly discuss suggestions on how to construct peri-null Bayes factor hypothesis tests that are also consistent.
机译:摘要 长期以来,反对贝叶斯因子点零假设检验的一个反对意见是,从一开始就知道点零假设是错误的。我们研究了通过朦胧的“近零”假设来近似尖锐的零点假设的后果,该假设实例化为以兴趣点为中心的狭窄先验分布。然后,近零贝叶斯因子等于零点贝叶斯因子乘以校正项,校正项本身就是贝叶斯因子。对于中等样本量,校正项相对无关紧要;但是,对于较大的样本量,校正项会变得有影响力,并导致近零贝叶斯因子不一致,并接近取决于在最大似然估计中评估的先验纵坐标比率的极限。我们表征了近零贝叶斯因子的渐近行为,并简要讨论了如何构建近零贝叶斯因子假设检验的建议。

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