RECENT ENERGY PRICE DEVELOPMENTS

摘要

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose to record highs above 80 dollars/bbl in September, on the back of Gulf of Mexico storm-related shut-ins and expectations that supplies would tighten further in the fourth quarter. Various hurricanes and tropical storms threatened Gulf of Mexico oil installations, and a major preventative mid-September shut-in of U.S. Gulf of Mexico crude and gas production caused WTI to peak at 83.90 dollars/bbl. In the North Sea, Dated Brent weakened versus other light sweets, reflecting lower refining margins in Europe and the U.S. Gulf Coast. Azeri Light strengthened on a combination of maintenance and a brief outage on a pipeline, which reduced its flow into the Mediterranean. However, Brent widened its premium against Urals on higher Russian exports ahead of a hike in export duty and an increased flow of Iraqi Kirkuk barrels into the Mediterranean. Crude futures surged in October, with WTI hitting a new record above 98 dollars/bbl on a further tightening of the market. Strong fundamentals, including lower crude stocks, constrained supplies and new geopolitical tensions supported markets, offsetting worries about economic downside risks to demand. Weather outages also contributed to tight conditions: late October saw Mexico forced to shut-in crude production due to storms. In the European market, Brent remained strong compared with other regional crudes, despite a decline in Northwest European cracking margins in October. North Sea shut-ins of up to 500 kb/d due to storms appeared to have limited impact on prices. In Asia, Dubai and other medium sours strengthened on strong fuel oil prices. Japanese crude stocks fell to their lowest level in at least 20 years.