An assessment of the effects of climatic change on agriculture

摘要

This paper summarizes some of the results and conclusions of an international project funded by IIASA and UNEP on the effects of climatic variations on agriculture. An overall goal of the project was to improve our understanding both offirst-order effectsof climatic variations on agricultural productivity and ofhigher-order effectson regional and national economies. Two broad types of experiments are described: (i)impact experiments, which provide estimates of first-order and higher-order effects of climatic variations on farming systems, and which assume that no adjustments are put in place, and (ii)adjustment experiments, which evaluate a number of adjustments available at the farm or government level to offset or mitigate these effects.