Climate change and mid-latitudes agriculture: Perspectives on consequences and policy responses

摘要

Because of population growth, economic development, and technological change, world and mid-latitudes agriculture will look very different than they do today by the time 2 × CO2climate change begins to have major impact. It does not appear that that impact would seriously restrain the growth of world agricultural capacity. However, significant shifts in regional comparative advantage in agriculture would be likely. Because the consequences of 2 × CO2climate change for agriculture would vary among countries - some suffering losses, others seeing themselves as potential winners - these consequences could impede international agreements to control climate change. However, even countries gaining agricultural advantage from climate change will need changes in policy to capture the gains. And policies to lessen the costs to the losers will be essential. If global warming continues beyond that associated with 2 × CO2, all countries in time would be lose