ABSTRACT:Prediction of future water demands depends on the degree to which conservation effects can be anticipated. A model developed for the Corps of Engineers shows that choosing a numerical conservation target to be achieved is more meaningful and yields more predictable results than price or price elasticity manipulations.The method developed and then applied to the Kaneohe Bay region of Oahu considers the following determinants of demand: geographic distribution of the users, indoor and outdoor requirements, time ‐ by year and month of the year, precipitation, historical unit usage rates, gross and irrigable acreage of land uses, price for water, elasticity of demand with respect to price, source of the water supply (local private supplies vs. agency supplies), and the percentage conservation savings anticipated in each future period in indoor and outdoor uses of water in each of 40 possible land uses.While developed for use in Hawaii, the model is applicable generall
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