ABSTRACT:The effects of changing nutrient inputs through land use management, waste water treatment, or effluent diversion are not clear, and managers are discovering that decisions which were effective in reversing eutrophication for one lake are often unsuccessful when applied to another. Simple empirical relationships are often used to predict the impact of management decisions. Errors in estimation could result in either substantial costs for overdesign or failure to meet desired eutrophication levels.This paper presents and illustrates a methodology to evaluate the impact of land use and water resource management decisions on lake eutrophication. The problems of worth of additional information, and uncertainty of estimates were handled within a cost‐effectiveness framework. The probability of exceeding a critical level of eutrophication was considered as a measure of effectiveness. The cost criterion is the expected value of opportunity costs, costs of analysis and costs of additional information.Uncertainty analysis techniques were used to estimate the effectiveness of various management alternatives. Bayesian methods can be utilized to determine the worth of additional information.The methodology was applied to Beseck Lake, Connecticut, and the cost and effectiveness measures estimated for a number of land management alternatives. Worth of additional information was not determined in this initial effort in uncertainty analysis for lake eutrophication managemen
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