Predictability of Persistent Thailand Rainfall during the Mature Monsoon Season in 2011 Using Statistical Downscaling of CGCM Seasonal Prediction

摘要

Predictability of above-normal rainfall over Thailand during the rainy season of 2011 was investigated with a one-tier seasonal prediction system based on an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (CGCM) combined with a statistical downscaling method. The statistical relationship was derived using singular value decomposition analysis (SVDA) between observed regional rainfall and the hindcast of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) from the seasonal prediction system, which has an ability to forecast oceanic variability for lead times up to several months. The downscaled product of 2011 local rainfall was obtained by combining rainfall patterns derived from significant modes of SVDA. This method has the advantage in terms of flexibility that phenomenon-based statistical relationships, such as teleconnections associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), or the newly recognized central Pacific El Nino, are considered separately in each SVDA mode. The downscaled prediction initialized from 1 August 2011 reproduced the anomalously intense precipitation pattern over Indochina including northern Thailand during the latter half of the rainy season, even though the direct hindcast from the CGCM failed to predict the local rainfall distribution and intensity. Further analysis revealed that this method is applicable to the other recent events such as heavy rainfall during the rainy seasons of 2002 and 2008 in Indochina.