Projection of the Future Wave Climate Changes Over the Western North Pacific

摘要

This study projected the future ocean wave climate changes based on global climate change scenario using the coupled climate model HadGEM2-AO according to the emission scenarios and using regional wave model.Annual mean significant wave height (SWH) is linked closely to annual mean wind speed during the forthcoming 21st Century.Because annual mean speed decreased in the western North Pacific,annual mean SWH is projected to decrease in the future.The annual mean SWH decreases for the last 30 years of the 21st century relative to the period 1971-2000 are 2~7 for RCP4.5 and 4~11 for RCP8.5,respectively.Also,extreme SWH and wind speed are projected to decrease in the future.In terms of seasonal mean,winter extreme SWH shows similar trend with annual extreme SWH;however,that of summer shows large increasing tendency compared with current climate in the western North Pacific.Therefore,typhoon intensity in the future might be more severe in the future climate.