Commercial building and housing starts are down and are unlikely to improve in 1996. Barclays'senior economist Dr Richard Roberts finds little for the industry to cheer about in the next quarter. The number of housing transactions in the first half of 1995 was about 8 lower than a year earlier, and expected activity for the rest of this year is also causing concern. Barclays' spring forecast (16 June, pages 52-55) predicted a slowdown in house sales, not an absolute decline. In the second half of 1995, market surveys suggest that new house sales will be unable to continue to outperform the housing market. little growth in real incomes is expected until spring 1996, although worries about interest-rate rises have receded in recent weeks.
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