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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the American Water Resources Association >MATHEMATICAL MODELS: PLANNING TOOLS FOR THE GREAT LAKES1
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MATHEMATICAL MODELS: PLANNING TOOLS FOR THE GREAT LAKES1

机译:数学模型:五大湖的规划工具1

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ABSTRACTThe Great Lakes Basin Commission has initiated a Framework Study to assess the present and projected water‐ and related land‐resource problems and demands in the Great Lakes Basin. Poorly defined objectives; incomplete and inconsistent data arrays; unknown air, biota, water, and sediment interactions; and multiple planning considerations for interconnected, large lake systems hinder objective planning. To incorporate mathematical modeling as a planning tool for the Great Lakes, a two‐phase program, comprising a feasibility and design study followed by contracted and in‐house modeling, data assembly, and plan development, has been initiated. The models will be used to identify sensitivities of the lakes to planning and management alternatives, insufficiencies in the data base, and inadequately understood ecosystem interactions. For the first time objective testing of resource‐utilization plans to identify potential conflicts will provide a rational and cost‐effective approach to Great Lakes management. Because disciplines will be interrelated, the long‐term effects of planning alternatives and their impacts on neighboring lakes and states can be evaluated. Testing of the consequences of environmental accidents and increased pollution levels can be evaluated, and risks to the resource determined. Examples are cited to demonstrate the use of such p
机译:摘要大湖流域委员会启动了一项框架研究,以评估大湖流域目前和预计的水和相关土地资源问题和需求。目标定义不明确;不完整和不一致的数据阵列;未知的空气、生物群、水和沉积物相互作用;对相互关联的大型湖泊系统的多种规划考虑阻碍了客观规划。为了将数学建模作为五大湖区的规划工具,已经启动了一个两阶段的计划,包括可行性和设计研究,然后是合同和内部建模、数据组装和计划制定。这些模型将用于确定湖泊对规划和管理替代方案的敏感性、数据库的不足以及对生态系统相互作用的了解不足。首次对资源利用计划进行客观测试以查明潜在的冲突,将为大湖区管理提供合理和具有成本效益的办法。由于学科是相互关联的,因此可以评估规划替代方案的长期影响及其对邻近湖泊和州的影响。可以评估环境事故和污染水平增加的后果,并确定资源风险。举例说明这种p

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