Under the Kyoto Protocol, Canada has committed to an average annual reduction of greenhouse gases of 6 below 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012. The transportation of freight contributes to 9 of Canada's emissions. Through the application of decomposition techniques and scenario explorations, we show that since 1990, increasing cross-border trade and a concurrent modal shift towards trucks were the most important determinants in increasing freight sector emissions. Looking toward 2012, a number of new developments are occurring. Trade with Asia is rising rapidly with rail appearing to be rising proportionally as a transportation mode. Federal government initiatives on the US and Canadian sides of the border are stimulating advanced technology, while higher fuel prices are increasing freight rates and encouraging carriers to seek efficiency gains. Based upon the most likely progression of these factors, emissions will rise a further 10 by 2012 and thereby push the sector to be 35 above base year values.
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