Abstract‘Normalized heat load’ is a quantifier of the destructive potential of fires, real‐world compartment fires and test fires alike. For real‐world fires it is subject to some uncertainties owing to the random nature of two of the variables it depends on: ventilation and fire load. For test fires also it is subject to uncertainties owing to a moderate degree of randomness that characterizes the results of test fires. A procedure is described for predicting the failure probability in fire of the boundaries of a compartment designed for fire resistance on the basis of information concerning the characteristics of the compartment and the design value of the fire load. The procedure is essentially deterministic, employing statistical considerations only as far as required by the nature of some of the input variables. With the aid of second‐moment analysis, it is possible, furthermore, to design the compartment boundaries for appropriate target failure prob
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