Evidence in the auroral record for secular solar variability

摘要

The historical record of aurorae is continuous and usefully dense for at least the last 2000 years. Revival of interest in the secular variability in solar activity motivates a review of the auroral record. The existence of secular variations in the auroral occurrence frequency has been known since the early 1700's, including the existence of a significant attenuation of auroral activity during the Maunder Minimum. Investigation of secular variations prior to the Maunder Minimum is now possible based on six auroral catalogs that have been published within the last 20 years. The catalogs cover the time period from the fifth century B.C. to the seventeenth century A.D. and combine both oriental and European observations. Features corresponding to the previously recognized Medieval Minimum, Medieval Maximum, and the Spörer Minimum are clearly evident in both oriental and European records. The global synchronicity of anomalies in the auroral occurrence frequency is used to argue that they are caused by changes in the level or state of solar activity. The combined catalogs provide a sufficient number of events in the Middle Ages to resolve a quasi‐80‐year periodicity in the recorded auroral occurrence frequency. Also in the unusually rich intervals of the Middle Ages, clear quasi‐10‐year periodicities appear in the recorded occurrence frequency wave form. These are most reasonably interpreted as manifestations of the 11‐year solar cycle and indicate that the solar cycle was then