In order to overcome the limitation of deterministic forecast,an ensemble forecasting system for regional ocean wave is developed.This system predicts ocean wind waves based on the meteorological forcing from the Ensemble Prediction System for Global of the Korea Meteorological Administration,which is consisted of 24 ensemble members.The ensemble wave forecasting system is evaluated by using the moored buoy data around Korea.The root mean squared error (RMSE) of ensemble mean showed the better performance than the deterministic forecast system after 2 days,especially RMSE of ensemble mean is improved by 15 compared with the deterministic forecast for 3-day lead time.It means that the ensemble method could reduce the uncertainty of the deterministic prediction system.The Relative Operating Characteristic as an evaluation scheme of probability prediction was bigger than 0.9 showing high predictability,meaning that the ensemble wave forecast could be usefully applied.
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