Implications of climate change for forests, vegetation and carbon in Australia

摘要

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that the level of threats to forests and vegetation will increase in the 21st century. Rising temperatures, drought, forest fires, heavy rains, humidity and cyclones will render forests and vegetation more prone to many threats, including pests and diseases. Pests and diseases adapted to warmer conditions would extend their distribution to the southern direction and higher elevations in Australia. Drought stressed plants may become more susceptible to existing pests and diseases, including bark beetles and Phytophthora spp. A range of exotic pests and diseases, if introduced, may cause widespread damage in Australia. Managing sustainable productivity inter alia requires realistic evaluation of impacts of climate change on potential threats to forests and the ecosystem services they provide, including as a carbon sink. Such evaluations of threats will assist future planning including prudent use of silvicultural practices to mitigate possible threats. Climate models can enable: better understanding of future threats to Australia's forests and vegetation and related ecosystem services; and better preparedness to safeguard Australia's natural resources in a changing climate. Forest management systems and plans can incorporate measures for mitigating the changing risks associated with pests, diseases, weeds, drought and fire. They can include contingency plans for the emergency salvage of damaged or dead standing timber to prevent damaged forest stands from becoming a source of greenhouse gas emissions.