A New Approach for Determining Short-Term, Objective Prognostic Predictive Methods for Terminal Cancer Patients Based on the Change Point of Laboratory Test Values

摘要

Background: In terminal phase cancer, predicting a prognosis precisely plays an important role for patients and their families to live meaningful lives. However, there are no established short-term, objective prognostic predictive methods. Objective: To develop simple, short-term, objective prognostic predictive methods through detecting a change point for laboratory test values. Design: A retrospective chart review. Setting/Subjects: Subjects were cancer patients aged 16 years and discharged dead from Osaka University Hospital in 2008. Measurements: Using different laboratory test values, new prognostic predictive methods were determined based on either six laboratory test values (white blood cell WBC, platelet PLT, C-reactive protein, blood urea nitrogen BUN, aspartate aminotransferase AST, and lactase dehydrogenase LDH): the WPCBAL score, or five test values (WBC, PLT, BUN, AST, and LDH): the WPBAL score. Their utility, including sensitivity and specificity, was compared with that of Glasgow prognostic scores (GPSs). Results: In total, 121 cancer patients were enrolled. WPCBAL and WPBAL scores showed higher sensitivity (0.88 and 0.91 vs. 0.68), specificity (0.79 and 0.70 vs. 0.53), negative predictive value (0.98 and 0.97 vs. 0.76), and a much larger relative risk (16.5 and 14.2 vs. 1.78) as prognostic predictors within two weeks of death than GPS as a prognostic predictor within three weeks of death. Conclusion: This is the first study that suggests that the objective prognostic predictive methods, through detecting the change point of laboratory test values, are useful for predicting short-term prognosis. The WPCBAL score and WPBAL score could objectively predict the remaining lifetime within two weeks of mortality.