Decisionmaking, Transitions, and Resilient Futures

摘要

In early 2010, two major earthquakes hit the Western Hemisphere: a 7.0 magnitude quake southwest of Porte-au-Prince, Haiti(population 9.7 million), and an 8.8 temblor north of Conception, Chile(population 17.1 million). The death toll in Haiti was over 220,000; that in Chile, fewer than 1,000. This two-orders-of-magnitude difference can be attributed in part to the distances between the epicenters of the quakes and the countries' respective population centers. But the largest part of the difference is the result of the Chilean government's consistent willingness to heed the advice provided by its world-renowned natural and social scientists and engineers-advice that minimized vulnerability with strict building codes and enabled robust emergency response through preparedness planning. Disasters may strike randomly, but the extent of the damage and the speed of and capability for response and rebuilding have nothing to do with luck and everything to do with science.