Earthquake prediction, hardly taken seriously as science in the United States before 1971, reached fledgling status in the period 1975 to 1978. By late 1974, most U.S. researchers in seismology were agreeing that earthquakes might be predictable on a scientific basis. Cautious optimism had in fact turned to rampant enthusiasm among some workers as evidence accumulated for many possible earthquake precursors and the theory of dilatancy seemed to explain most observations (see summaries by Bolt and Wang, 1975; Healy, 1975; Kisslinger and Wyss, 1975). Slower progress since 1974 has dampened the euphoria felt by some but a much more solid and broad foundation for a Prediction Program has now been constructed and a number of important cornerstones laid.
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