Crop protection markets in south-east Asia

摘要

CONFERENCE REPORT CROP PROTECTION MARKETS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA Brian Hicks editor of the business newsletter Crop Protection Monthly reports on the 3rd Asia Crop Protection Markets Conference held in Bangkok from 19ndash;20 September organised by the Centre for Management Technology (CMT) Singapore (www.cmtevents.com) Introduction Dr Paul Teng director of science and technology for Monsanto in the Asia-Pacific region set the context for the conference when opening the first session. He referred to Norman Borlaugrsquo;s remark that ldquo;over the next 25 years Asian farmers must increase yields by 50ndash;70rdquo;. A critical challenge to enable this to occur according to Dr Teng is for private and public sectors to work more effectively together. Dr Teng is in a good position to help realise some of this co-operation having recently switched camps from the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines to join Monsanto.Whilst not all experts would agree with the analysis of Borlaug a Nobel prize-winner dubbed the ldquo;father of the green revolutionrdquo; food security and supply is an ongoing challenge in Asia. Indeed as the conference was being held floods in Thailand Cambodia and Vietnam were destroying large areas of rice crops. Coping with population growth Consultant Dr Alan Powell highlighted the challenges to the two most populous countries of the region India and China. The Chinese population is expected to rise from its current 1,300 million to 1,500 million by 2050 whilst India will become the most populous up from just over 1,000 million today to 1,600 million by 2050.The rate of population growth in the Philippines exceeds that in India with 4.1 births per woman. Increasing urbanisation in Asia is adding further problems. Urban populations purchase 90 of their food needs from markets whilst the needs of over 60 of the rural population are met locally. A preference for more meat in Asian diets will put additional strains on agricultural production. Effects of the Asian crisis One benefit to the region during the 1997/1998 economic crisis was the recognition by politicians that agriculture was integral to Asian economies. As a consequence more support was given to the sector and more focus made on import substitution. Many of those who lost their jobs during that period also returned to the land.However the spectre of the crisis still hangs over the region and some expect it could return again if economic management is not improved. Bangkok still has many unfinished skyscrapers and idle cranes. 2 2 0 Pest ic ide Outl ook ndash; December 2000 This journal is copy; The Royal Society of Chemistry 2000 Varying attitudes to agbiotech Agricultural biotechnology is receiving increasing attention in Asia both positive and negative. China is committed to agricultural biotechnology and ldquo;gung hordquo; according to Dr Powell whilst still very mindful of public concerns. Indonesia is to stop Bt crop trials whereas Thailand appears to be becoming more positive. There is considerable concern from both farmer and activist groups that GM crops could lead to reduced diversity of rice and other varieties.Developments at APCPA The Asia-Pacific Crop Protection Association (APCPA) one of the six regional associations of the Global Crop Protection Federation was one of the main conference sponsors. It is establishing a new regional technology centre in Bangkok with a focus on promoting integrated pest ACPCArsquo;s new executive director Tim Oviatt and new communications director Georgina Cairns. DOI 10. 1 0 3 9 / b 0 0 9 2 7 5 o management (IPM) headed by Wyn Ellis APCPArsquo;s founding director. He will continue to play an active role within APCPA but is currently handing over operational responsibilities to the new executive director Tim Oviatt an American who has worked in the region for many years in agricultural commodities and consultancy.APCPA also has a new communications co-ordinator Georgina Cairns. Founded in 1996 APCPA has some 14 national associations as members representing some 380 individual companies with South Korea the latest to join last year. Ten Ramp;D-based companies are corporate members. Mr Ellis told delegates that ldquo;politicisation of IPM in Asia has brought a lot of cynicismrdquo; but there had been signs of progress in the last few months with relations between the interested parties improving. He felt the time was right for a new industry commitment to IPM and that it was on the right track for ldquo;pushing IPM with new vigourrdquo;. One of the challenges was incorporating biotech as part of IPM a theme that Paul Teng developed further in his presentation to the conference.The regional technology centre will be a joint initiative with the World View Foundation a charity founded by the Norwegian Television Network. The form and structure are still being worked out but will involve a distance learning service based on the world-wide web and will be directed at both company and NGO employees. For more information on APCPA see Pesticide Outlook 1999 10(1) 9 and http://www.apcpa.org/ Thailand perspective Sinchai Swasdichai president of the Thai Crop Protection Association told delegates that the Thai market was worth US$220 million in 1999 at ex-works level with strong levels of competition. Herbicides account for 51 of the market with paraquat and glyphosate the leading products.Rice accounts for 25 of the market. There has been significant growth in the last decade but the market is expected to fall by 10 in value in 2000 with 2ndash;5 growth per annum expected over the following three years. Safe use projects are a high priority. Seven GM crops have been tested in Thailand and it is possible that Bt cotton will be commercialised next year. Dr Gustav Maurer a principal advisor to the German Agency for Technical Co-operation (GTZ) told the conference that he had been assisting the Thai Ministry of Agriculture since 1997 in its implementation of the Hazardous Substances Act of 1992 which is used to control pesticides. The act has enabled many older pesticides to be banned and helped pave the way for newer safer pesticides to come into the market.He told delegates that 40ndash;50 of products sold in Thailand were substandard banned or counterfeit. Farmers being aware of this were consequently often applying 3ndash;4 products at once. The Thai authorities are looking to outsource some of the regulatory approval process to the private sector. Bayer is the only pesticide company with an incinerator in Thailand but the temperature (900deg;C) is not high enough for complete combustion. There is also the issue of disposal of CONFERENCE REPORT obsolete pesticides an issue that is being addressed in cooperation with FAO and GCPF. Chinese market overview Guildford Ide business manager of agro products for DuPont China told delegates that good statistics on the Chinese market were very hard to obtain.His own estimate of the value of the Chinese crop protection market was US$932 million in 1998 and $991 million in 1999 (exworks level) making it the seventh largest in the world although he conceded that other estimates put it as high as fifth at $1,600ndash;1,900 million. In 1999 insecticides accounted for $536 million according to Mr Idersquo;s estimates herbicides for $274 million and fungicides for $181 million. The proportion of the market held by multinationals has grown in the last five years and is currently about 20 but is held back by the import quota system applied regardless of the joint venture status of the company. Joint ventures probably account for another 10 of the market.Whilst imports have been pegged exports have grown rapidly from less than $100 million in 1993 to nearly $450 million last year. China is dogged by an excess of pesticide production capacity. About 60 of capacity is currently used. There are about 1400 authorised formulators and 300 authorised producers of pesticide active ingredients. In addition there are about 300 unauthorised producers and formulators. Mr Ide said that there are currently some 22 joint ventures in China with the Zeneca US$85 million paraquat jv and the more recent Aventis US$50 million fipronil jv dwarfing the others. Mature products are supposedly not eligible for jvs although the paraquat project belied this ruling. No imports of the jv product are allowed once it becomes operational and the jv is limited to sales of the jvrsquo;s products.Product prices have deteriorated in China which has led to financial problems at some of the local companies. The Red Sun group is aiming to displace Sanonda in the longer term and is even aiming to get a listing on the US NASDAQ stock exchange. China has some 100 million hectares of arable land (average holding 0.6 hectares) compared to 170 million ha in India. Its vegetable crop area has doubled over the last decade currently standing at 11.2 million hectares. Agricultural production only represents 4 of exports but there would be substantial feed imports if meat consumption increases appreciably as some experts predict. Korean market developments Dr Jeonghan Kim of the University of Seoul and the Korean pesticide research organisation KRICT told delegates that the Korean market accounted for about 2.1 of the world total making it about 12th in the world ranking.Pesticide sales have increased rapidly in recent years to some US$670 million in 1999. In the new spirit of rapport with North Korea pesticide donations have been made by the South. Dr Kim expects the North could add a further 50 to the Korean total which would take the country into the worldrsquo;s top eight markets. The first pesticide active ingredient made Pest ic ide Outlook ndash; December 2000 2 2 1 CONFERENCE REPORT in Korea was parathion in 1969. There are now at least 13 companies making a.i.rsquo;s and 17 making pesticide formulations.The leading crop protection company is Dongbu Hannong Chemical (28 market share) followed by Novartis (15) Kyung Nong (14) and HanKook Samgong (8). South Korea has recently established itself as an pesticide innovator. The first developed there was the insecticide flupyrazofos which was discovered by KRICT. The second was the rice herbicide Pyanchor (pyribenzoxim) being developed by LG Chemical whose trade name means barnyardgrass. The third is the fungicide ethaboxam also from LG Chemical. More recently Dongbu Hannong Chemical has set up its own Ramp;D facilities. It is developing a chitin synthesis inhibitor DBI-3204 for control of diamondback moth and Spodoptera as well as a herbicide for paddy and upland rice DBH-129. A lot of GM crop research is also being conducted in Korea. 222 Pestic ide Outl ook ndash; December 2000 Cotton in Asia Paul Grassick of FMC gave a review of cotton pest control in Asia. He told delegates that China was ldquo;storing up resistance problems by not pursuing a refuge strategy for its Bt cottonrdquo;. More vigilance was required since the Helicoverpa pest is more migratory in both China and India. The Bt cotton area in Australia is now restricted to about 30 of the total cotton crop. Further information The Market for Agrochemicals in South East Asia (Agrow Reports Richmond UK) ndash; to be published January 2001. Report on first CMT China Crop Protection Conference (Crop Protection Monthly March 1996). Report on second CMT Asia Crop Protection Conference (Crop Protection Monthly September 1998).