Beach-fx: Monte Carlo Life-Cycle Simulation Model for Estimating Shore Protection Project Evolution and Cost Benefit Analyses

摘要

Beach-fx is a comprehensive new analytical framework for evaluating the physical performance and economic benefits and costs of shore-protection projects, particularly, beach nourishment along sandy shores. The model has been implemented as an event-based Monte Carlo life cycle simulation tool that is run on desktop computers. Beach-fx relies on user populated databases that describe the coastal area under study, the environmental forcing in the form of a suite of historically-based plausible storm events that can impact the area, an inventory of infrastructure that can be damaged, and estimates of morphology response of the anticipated range of beach profile configurations to each storm in the plausible storm suite, together with damage driving parameters for erosion, inundation, and wave impact damages. The model is data driven in that all site-specific information is contained within the input databases, which generalizes the model and makes it easily transportable between study areas. Beach-fx integrates the engineering and economic analyses and incorporates uncertainty in both physical parameters and environmental forcing, which enables quantification of risk with respect to project evolution and economic costs and benefits of project implementation. This new model provides for a more realistic treatment of shore protection project evolution through the relaxation of a variety of simplifying assumptions that are made in existing, commonly applied approaches. Beach-fx is implemented with a modern graphical user interface, an interface to geographical information system data, extensive reporting and visualization, and database population tools.