Spatial interaction between the truck flows through the Mexico-Texas border

摘要

This paper presents an analysis of the spatial and temporalinteractions between truck flows across the Texas-Mexico border. Thesystem of flows is modeled as a multivariate stochastic process withinteractions both in time and space dimensions. A novel modelingapproach, the space time autoregressive moving average (STARMA)model, is applied to capture the autocorrelations between the flows.These autocor- relations are the base to compute direct and crosseddemand elasticities between the flows. The demand elasticities areused to estimate the degree of dependence between the truck flowsboth southbound and northbound, revealing that uneven adjustmentstake place in the truck flows pattern for southbound and northboundtraffic. In fact, the southbound flows are more sensitive to changesin their own demand over time than the corresponding spatial changes.On the other hand, the northbound flows are more sensitive to changesin the demand for the main flow (Laredo's bridge) rather than theirown variations in previous periods.