Scenario-based CO_2 emissions reduction potential and energy use in Republic of Korea's passenger vehicle fleet

摘要

This study explores the carbon dioxide (CO_2) emissions reduction potential of passenger vehicles in Republic of Korea, by assuming a number of CO_2 reduction routes. Historical data pertaining to important factors affecting the CO_2 emissions of passenger vehicles, such as the number of registered vehicles, annual mileage, and average CO_2 emissions per vehicle, were analyzed to predict the extent by which these factors would change in 2020. The results show that the total CO_2 emissions from passenger vehicles in 2015 would be approximately 37.1 Mton, assuming automobile manufacturers will meet the regulations for CO_2 emissions reductions for 2015. The CO_2 emissions reduction route is determined in accordance with a hypothetical regulation for CO_2 emissions reductions in 2020. If the CO_2 emissions rates of new passenger vehicles are reduced by 3-7 per year after complying with the 2015 regulation, then total CO_2 emissions and required energy would be approximately 36.5-38.6 Mton and 12.9-13.6 Mtoe, respectively. Also, if the current fuel economy competition persists until 2020, the CO_2 emissions reductions will follow the plausible reduction route and consequently reach 35.1 Mton CO_2 and 12.4 Mtoe energy in 2020. As a result, in order to reduce the total CO_2 emissions of passenger vehicles in 2020 (compared with 2015), the value of regulated CO_2 emissions in 2020 should be set to less than 103 g/km per passenger vehicle.