Zinc TCs took a dramatic downward turn in September due to concerns over market tightness. Chinese domestic TCs decreased by rmb200-400/t to rmb5,000-5,400/t in most provinces, while import TCs dropped by $30-40/t to average $115/t for the month. The ongoing supply disruptions in Q3 continued to impact ex-China mine supply, although mine production is estimated to have strongly recovered from the prior quarter to 2.0 Mt, increasing by 336,000t. Global smelter output in Q3 is also forecast to have recovered, increasing by a more modest 145,000t due to smelter output in Q2 being impacted to a lesser degree than mine output. This has pushed the concentrate market into a small surplus for Q3, although this will be short lived as the market is expected to return to a seasonal deficit in Q4 as per usual. This is when Chinese smelters traditionally build stocks ahead of the domestic mine closures, but there may not be sufficient material available in the market to satisfy this demand.
展开▼
