Property-based quantitative risk assessment of hydrogen, ammonia, methane, and propane considering explosion, combustion, toxicity, and environmental impacts

摘要

In this study, a quantitative risk assessment of decarbonized new fuels, such as hydrogen and ammonia, and conventional hydrocarbon fuels, such as methane and propane, is conducted. The assessment focuses on the aspects of explosion, combustion, toxicity and environment to find answers for the questions "Which fuel is more dangerous?" and "How much?". To assess the risk of each fuel, not for specific applications, but for general purposes, risk related fuel properties are used to calculate the risk intensity and risk frequency. Considering the risk frequency, the degree of risk is calculated as hydrogen > propane > methane > ammonia. In terms of the risk intensity, the degree of risk is changed as propane > methane > hydrogen > ammonia. The total risk score, which is a multiple of the risk frequency and intensity, is derived as propane (47.6 pts) > methane (31.5 pts) > hydrogen (31.2 pts) > ammonia (15.4 pts). Hydrogen shows high risks in the flammability limit, minimum ignition energy, adiabatic flame temperature and laminar burning velocity while ammonia shows high risks in toxicity. The results obtained from the risk assessment are expected to reinforce the weak points of decarbonized alternative fuels for their safe use in energy conversion systems.