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Financial Time Series Model Based on Least Squares Support Vector Machine Predictive Control Algorithm in Financial Market

机译:基于最小二乘支持向量机的金融市场时间序列模型

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摘要

China’s financial market also faces some outstanding problems, namely, obvious structural imbalance in the size of the financial market, on the one hand, the absolute dominance of the size of the indirect financing market, mainly the bank lending market and on the other hand, the imbalance in the size of the direct financing market and the indirect financing market. At the same time, there is also a structural imbalance of the financial market among regions in China. How to verify the objective existence of such structural imbalance in different regions and measure the difference in the level of financial market development among regions is the focus of this paper. This paper constructs a financial market development level indicator system from three dimensions, equity market, bond market, and lending market, and measures the financial market development level by using inter-provincial panel data from 2001 to 2020 through neural network algorithm, time series model, and support vector machine algorithm, and analyzes the regional heterogeneity of financial market development on this basis. The results show that the overall market level of the financial industry in the eastern coastal region of China is the highest, but the intra-regional differences are also the most obvious; the overall market level of the financial industry in the northeastern region of China is the lowest, and the differences with the eastern region rise significantly; the market level of the financial industry at the provincial level in the central and eastern regions shows an all-time decreasing trend, while the western and northeastern regions of China show a convergence, then divergence, and then convergence trend. Therefore, differentiated financial policies should be implemented according to the stage of regional development in order to enhance the financial development level of each economic region and gradually narrow the regional financial development gap.
机译:我国金融市场也面临一些突出问题,即金融市场规模结构失衡明显,一方面是间接融资市场(主要是银行借贷市场)规模的绝对优势,另一方面是直接融资市场和间接融资市场规模的不平衡。同时,中国各地区之间也存在金融市场结构性失衡。如何验证不同地区存在这种结构性失衡的客观存在,并衡量不同地区间金融市场发展水平的差异,是本文的重点。本文从股票市场、债券市场、借贷市场三个维度构建金融市场发展水平指标体系,利用2001—2020年省际面板数据,通过神经网络算法、时间序列模型、支持向量机算法测度金融市场发展水平,并在此基础上分析金融市场发展的区域异质性。结果表明:我国东部沿海地区金融业整体市场水平最高,但区域内差异也最为明显;东北地区金融业整体市场水平最低,与东部地区差异明显上升;中东部地区省级金融业市场水平呈现历史下降趋势,而西部和东北地区则呈现先收敛后发散、后收敛的趋势。因此,应根据区域发展阶段实施差异化的金融政策,以提高各经济区域的金融发展水平,逐步缩小区域金融发展差距。

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