Propagation and Characteristics of Hydrometeorological Drought Under Changing Climate in Irish Catchments

摘要

Hydrometeorological droughts are complex hazards expressed through the relative deviation in water availability relative to long-term average conditions. The development and propagation of drought is governed by hydrological processes at different spatial scales including precipitation, evapotranspiration, overland flow, soil moisture, groundwater storage and discharge. Detailed investigation is thus required to evaluate associated linkages among various types of hydrometeorological drought to understand the likely impacts of climate change on drought characteristics (magnitude, frequency, duration and propagation). This study explores the impact of climate change on hydrometeorological drought for 10 Irish catchments, using standardized drought indices representing different components of the hydrological system. We employ 12 Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), forced with SSP370 and bias corrected to catchment conditions to force a conceptual hydrological model to generate hydrological projections for each catchment. The results indicate substantial drying during summer with associated increases in summer drought magnitude and frequency. However, simulations show a wide range of change, especially for hydrological drought (discharge and baseflow). Only modest changes in the magnitude and frequency of hydrological drought events were found, with increases in winter and spring precipitation offsetting summer dryness. Similarly, the probability of meteorological drought propagating to hydrological events (Standardized Streamflow Index/Standardized Baseflow Index), shows modest increases under the climate change projections considered. Findings highlight that drought, especially during summer are a critical climate change risk for adaptation.