1. Grain prices are likely to be capped in H222 following the signing of the agreement between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN on July 22 2022, which will see the resumption of grain exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and the easing of the global food crisis, ceteris paribus. 2. We highlight that we already expected grain prices to ease in H222 as better weather and harvests worldwide ease the supply tightness in the market, while a slowing global economy eases demand to a certain extent. 3. Additionally, with a current capacity to store just 25mn tonnes of grain from the 2022/23 harvest, the deal will free up enough storage capacity for Ukraine’s full 2022/23 grains crop.
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