The IMF downgraded its forecasts for economic growth recently but Oxford Economics believes that the IMF is underestimating the impact that higher interest rates and the loss of wealth from falling asset and home prices will have on advanced economies. The IMF estimates that global growth in 2023 will be similar to 2019 – soft, but not a disaster – and that a global recession will likely be avoided. Oxford Economics’ forecasts are much weaker indicating the global economy is on the cusp of recession. Oxford singles out Canada, the United States and most of Europe as most at risk of recession. Canada’s weakness, in particular, is its housing market.
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