For some indication of how the coronavirus economic effects on manufacturing could progress over time, we can look to what happened in China. It is not an apples-to-apples comparison however. The first cases of the virus emerged in late December 2019. Quarantine efforts began on January 23 and quickly expanded. In January and February, industrial production in China contracted at its sharpest pace in thirty years falling by 13.5. While 13.5 is a substantial decline, this represents about a 20.4 swing (yoy) given the current pace of growth in industrial production that China was reporting prior to the virus.
展开▼
