Analysis of Reliability of Weather Fields for Typhoon Maemi (0314)

摘要

Numerical simulations of the storm surge and waves induced by the Typhoon Maemi incident on the south sea of Korea in 2003 are performed using the JMA-MSM forecast weather field,NCEP-CFSR reanalysis weather field,ECMWF-ERA5 reanalysis weather field,and the pressure and wind fields obtained using the best track information provided by JTWC.The calculated surge heights are compared with the time history observed at harbours along the coasts of Korea.For the waves occurring coincidentally with the storm surges the calculated significant wave heights are compared with the measured data.Based on the comparison of surge and wave heights the assessment of the reliability of various weather fields is performed.As a result the JMA-MSM weather fields gives the highest reliability,and the weather field obtained using JTWC best track information gives also relatively good agreement.The ECMWF-ERA5 gives in general surge and wave heights weaker than the measured.The reliability of NCEP-CFSR turns out to be the worst for this special case of Typhoon Maemi.Based on the results of this study it is found that the reliable weather fields are essential for the accurate simulation of storm surges and waves.