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Simultaneous Monitoring of Different Drought Types Using Linear and Nonlinear Combination Approaches

机译:使用线性和非线性组合方法同时监测不同干旱类型

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摘要

Abstract Univariate drought indicators are insufficient for characterizing the complicated effects and conditions of droughts. Accordingly, this study aimed to introduce and assess a composite drought index called the Integrated Drought Index (IDI), composed of the most important water balance variables including, temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and soil moisture to simultaneously monitor hydrological, agricultural, and meteorological drought. To this end, four widely used linear and non-linear combination approaches—namely the kernel mean component analysis (KMCA), copula function (CF), entropy weighting (EW), and the principal component analysis (PCA)—were used here, whose products are called IDI-KMCA, IDI-CF, IDI-EW, and IDI-PCA, respectively. The research data were extracted from ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis v5) datasets on a monthly scale for the 1979–2020 period. According to the findings, all proposed composite indices exhibited a mostly similar variation pattern as the individual indices and performed well in monitoring drought conditions—except for IDI-CF, which slightly deviated from the pattern during the 1989–1990 period. High values of the index of agreement (with the average values ranging between 0.5 and 0.9) and correlation coefficient (with the average values ranging between 0.7 and 0.9) also suggested a good agreement among the proposed composite indices. Since climate and hydrologic conditions in the region were not complex, they evaluated the same drought conditions through linear and non-linear approaches. In addition, Frank functions were selected to derive the joint distribution functions of drought characteristics for bi-variate and tri-variate functions. Finally, considering the spatial distribution of the drought return period, the probability of mild droughts remained the same under bi-variate and tri-variate conditions, whereas the occurrence probability of extreme drought changed (increasing and decreasing in the case of "and" and "or").
机译:摘要 单因素干旱指标不足以表征干旱的复杂影响和条件。因此,本研究旨在引入和评估一种称为综合干旱指数(IDI)的综合干旱指数,该指数由最重要的水平衡变量组成,包括温度、降水、径流和土壤湿度,以同时监测水文、农业和气象干旱。为此,这里使用了四种广泛使用的线性和非线性组合方法,即核平均分量分析(KMCA)、copula函数(CF)、熵加权(EW)和主成分分析(PCA),其产品分别称为IDI-KMCA、IDI-CF、IDI-EW和IDI-PCA。研究数据是从 1979-2020 年期间的 ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis v5) 数据集中提取的。根据研究结果,所有提出的综合指数都表现出与单个指数基本相似的变化模式,并且在监测干旱条件方面表现良好,但IDI-CF除外,它在1989-1990年期间略微偏离了该模式。一致性指数(平均值在0.5至0.9之间)和相关系数(平均值在0.7至0.9之间)的高值也表明所提出的综合指数之间具有良好的一致性。由于该地区的气候和水文条件并不复杂,他们通过线性和非线性方法评估了相同的干旱条件。此外,选取弗兰克函数推导干旱特征的双变量和三变量函数的联合分布函数。最后,考虑干旱重现期的空间分布,在双变量和三变量条件下,轻度干旱的发生概率保持不变,而极端干旱的发生概率发生了变化(在“和”和“或”的情况下呈增加和减少的趋势)。

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