Forecasting the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in India using machine learning and statistical models

摘要

COVID-19, which is an infectious disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has resulted in a massive blow to India with respect to the health of its citizens and economy. The work in this paper focuses on the Prophet model, linear regression model, Holt's model and the ARIMA model for predicting the number of confirmed, recovered cases, deaths and active cases along with growth rate, recovery rate and mortality rate in India for the month of November 2020. The performance of all the above mentioned models has been evaluated using standard metrics namely R~(2), adjusted R~(2), root-mean-square error and mean absolute error.