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MODELLING OF PATHOGENS IMPACT ON THE HUMAN DISEASE TRANSMISSION WITH OPTIMAL CONTROL STRATEGIES

机译:病原体对人类疾病传播影响的建模和最佳控制策略

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摘要

Abstract This study concentrates on a nonlinear deterministic mathematical model for the impact of pathogens on human disease transmission with optimal control strategies. Both pathogen-free and coexistence equilibria are computed. The basic reproduction number R0, which plays a vital role in mathematical epidemiology, was derived. The qualitative analysis of the model revealed the scenario for both pathogen-free and coexistence equilibria together with R0. The local stability of the equilibria is established via the Jacobian matrix and Routh-Hurwitz criteria, while the global stability of the equilibria is proven by using an appropriate Lyapunov function. Also, the normalized sensitivity analysis has been performed to observe the impact of different parameters on R0. The proposed model is extended into optimal control problem by incorporating three control variables, namely, preventive measure variable based on separation of susceptible from contacting the pathogens, integrated vector management based on chemical, biological control, ... etc. to kill pathogens and their carriers, and supporting infective medication variable based on the care of the infected individual in quarantine center. Optimal disease control analysis is examined using Pontryagin minimum principle. Numerical simulations are performed depending on analytical results and discussed quantitatively.
机译:摘要 本研究采用非线性确定性数学模型,研究病原体对人类疾病传播的影响,并采用最优控制策略。计算无病原体和共存平衡。推导了在数学流行病学中起着至关重要作用的基本繁殖数R0。该模型的定性分析揭示了无病原体和共存平衡以及R0的情景。通过雅可比矩阵和Routh-Hurwitz准则建立平衡的局部稳定性,而使用适当的Lyapunov函数证明平衡的全局稳定性。此外,还进行了归一化敏感性分析,以观察不同参数对R0的影响。将所提模型扩展为最优控制问题,结合3个控制变量,即基于易感病菌与接触病原体分离的预防措施变量,基于化学、生物防治的综合病媒管理,...等,杀灭病原体及其携带者,并根据检疫中心感染者的护理情况,支持感染性药物变量。使用Pontryagin最小原则检查最佳疾病控制分析。根据分析结果进行数值模拟,并进行定量讨论。

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