Trend and Seasonality Analysis in Prices and Arrivals of Selected Agricultural Commodities in India

摘要

The study was conducted to find the fluctuation in the prices and arrival of the selected high value agricultural commodities. The study was conducted for the period 2004-2020 by collecting secondary data from CMIE (Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy) database. The major agricultural commodities were selected purposively on the basis of high price fluctuatiion and arrivals in the market. The commodities selected for the study include, castor seed, coriander, jeera, soybean and turmeric. The results of the study showed that there is a positive and significant relationship between growth rate and the prices of selected commodities with Jeera showing the highest growth rate of (9.87) in arrival followed by turmeric (9.05) and the lowest in coriander (5.06) as against the prices where it showed all together with a different scenario with highest in case of coriander (7.55) followed by soybean (7.24) and lowest in jeera with (5.69) respectively. The results of the findings revealed that in all the commodities high seasonal indices were observed from March to June indicating high post-harvest arrivals during these months. In the case of soybean and turmeric, the seasonal index for prices is high in April to September, which reveals that there is a lack of storage facilities and the production during these months is very low. This study suggested improvement in the infrastructure, storage, and post-harvest techniques so that the arrivals of these commodities get increased and availability should be throughout the year so that the price fluctuation can be minimized.