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Species life‐history strategies affect population responses to temperature and land‐cover changes

机译:物种生活史策略影响种群对温度和土地覆盖变化的响应

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摘要

Abstract Human‐induced environmental changes have a direct impact on species populations, with some species experiencing declines while others display population growth. Understanding why and how species populations respond differently to environmental changes is fundamental to mitigate and predict future biodiversity changes. Theoretically, species life‐history strategies are key determinants shaping the response of populations to environmental impacts. Despite this, the association between species life histories and the response of populations to environmental changes has not been tested. In this study, we analysed the effects of recent land‐cover and temperature changes on rates of population change of 1,072 populations recorded in the Living Planet Database. We selected populations with at least 5 yearly consecutive records (after imputation of missing population estimates) between 1992 and 2016, and for which we achieved high population imputation accuracy (in the cases where missing values had to be imputed). These populations were distributed across 553 different locations and included 461 terrestrial amniote vertebrate species (273 birds, 137 mammals, and 51 reptiles) with different life‐history strategies. We showed that populations of fast‐lived species inhabiting areas that have experienced recent expansion of cropland or bare soil present positive populations trends on average, whereas slow‐lived species display negative population trends. Although these findings support previous hypotheses that fast‐lived species are better adapted to recover their populations after an environmental perturbation, the sensitivity analysis revealed that model outcomes are strongly influenced by the addition or exclusion of populations with extreme rates of change. Therefore, the results should be interpreted with caution. With climate and land‐use changes likely to increase in the future, establishing clear links between species characteristics and responses to these threats is fundamental for designing and conducting conservation actions. The results of this study can aid in evaluating population sensitivity, assessing the likely conservation status of species with poor data coverage, and predicting future scenarios of biodiversity change.
机译:摘要 人为环境变化对物种种群有直接影响,部分物种数量下降,另一些物种数量增长。了解物种种群对环境变化的不同反应的原因和方式对于缓解和预测未来的生物多样性变化至关重要。从理论上讲,物种生活史策略是影响种群对环境影响反应的关键决定因素。尽管如此,物种生活史与种群对环境变化的反应之间的关联尚未得到检验。在这项研究中,我们分析了最近的土地覆盖和温度变化对地球生命力数据库中记录的 1,072 个种群人口变化率的影响。我们选择了在1992年至2016年期间至少有5年连续记录的人群(在估算缺失的人口估计值后),并且我们实现了很高的人口插补准确性(在必须估算缺失值的情况下)。这些种群分布在553个不同的地点,包括461种陆生羊膜脊椎动物(273种鸟类,137种哺乳动物和51种爬行动物),具有不同的生活史策略。我们发现,在最近经历过农田或裸露土壤扩张的栖息区的快活物种种群平均呈现正种群趋势,而慢活物种则呈现负种群趋势。尽管这些发现支持了先前的假设,即快速生存的物种在环境扰动后更好地适应恢复其种群,但敏感性分析表明,模型结果受到增加或排除具有极端变化率的种群的强烈影响。因此,应谨慎解释结果。随着未来气候和土地利用变化的增加,在物种特征和对这些威胁的反应之间建立明确的联系是设计和开展保护行动的基础。本研究结果有助于评估种群敏感性,评估数据覆盖率差的物种的可能保护状况,并预测生物多样性变化的未来情景。

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