Microscopic Traffic Simulation Calibration Level for Reliable Estimation of Vehicle Emissions

摘要

Vehicle emissions are largely determined by the details of driving behaviours. Accordingly, emissions are often estimated by integrating micro-scale emission models into traffic simulations. Under this approach, it is essential to replicate the actual traffic situation being considered in an emission evaluation using a proper calibration procedure. Most previous research with respect to traffic flow has primarily focused on adjusting the complex combinations of parameters evaluated in these models, but it is not guaranteed that the use of widely used calibration measures can lead more accurate emissions estimates. Accordingly, we propose a systematic guideline for calibration to ensure reliable micro-scale emissions estimates. A calibration procedure is thus established in this paper based on various measure of effect (MOE) compositions (i.e., calibration levels) consisting of aggregated traffic data to identify the level that most reliably estimates micro-scale emissions. Five calibration levels of progressively more detailed measurements are first defined, valid calibration levels are identified, and the reliable calibration level is finally selected based on the available traffic data. The effect of vehicle type (i.e., light vs. heavy vehicles) composition on the estimated emissions is also evaluated for a well-calibrated simulation. We expect that a highly reliable estimation of emissions is possible using this more detailed traffic simulation calibration measurement.