Radiomics analysis enables fatal outcome prediction for hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

摘要

Background In December 2019, a rare respiratory disease named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out, leading to great concern around the world. Purpose To develop and validate a radiomics nomogram for predicting the fatal outcome of COVID-19 pneumonia. Material and Methods The present study consisted of a training dataset (n = 66) and a validation dataset (n = 30) with COVID-19 from January 2020 to March 2020. A radiomics signature was generated using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression model. A radiomics score (Rad-score) was developed from the training cohort. The radiomics model, clinical model, and integrated model were built to assess the association between radiomics signature/clinical characteristics and the mortality of COVID-19 cases. The radiomics signature combined with the Rad-score and the independent clinical factors and radiomics nomogram were constructed. Results Seven stable radiomics features associated with the mortality of COVID-19 were finally selected. A radiomics nomogram was based on a combined model consisting of the radiomics signature and the clinical risk factors indicating optimal predictive performance for the fatal outcome of patients with COVID-19 with a C-index of 0.912 (95 confidence interval CI 0.867-0.957) in the training dataset and 0.907 (95 CI 0.849-0.966) in the validation dataset. The calibration curves indicated optimal consistency between the prediction and the observation in both training and validation cohorts. Conclusion The CT-based radiomics nomogram indicated favorable predictive efficacy for the overall survival risk of patients with COVID-19, which could help clinicians intensively follow up high-risk patients and make timely diagnoses.