OPEC producers and Russia are set to take a growing share of the global oil market under the energy transition scenarios of the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook, but with a rising risk of volatility as supply falls short of demand, the IEA warned Oct. 13. The report, timed to inform COP26 climate talks in November, foresees that under the least ambitious energy transition scenario, the “stated policies scenario,” the share of OPEC and Russia in the oil market rises from 47 in 2020 to 48 in 2030 and 53 in 2050, with demand slightly rising over the period compared with pre-pandemic levels, at 103 million b/d.
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